- 2025/8/20
- General
News Letter 033 【Trump’s tariff】 What will happen to Vietnam and Japan?
This is Kitazawa from Dragon Logistics.
We’re changing things up a bit and starting a new format for our logistics updates!
In this Newsletter, we’ll summarize the current market conditions for shipments to the U.S. and offer some forecasts for the coming months. We hope you find this helpful.
<Key Highlights>
- U.S.-China Mutual Tariffs: Temporary 10% tariff extended until November 10.
- Christmas Season Impact: What’s happening with U.S. imports?
- Red Sea & Suez Canal: Renewed Houthi attacks affecting shipping routes.
1) Mutual Tariffs Between Countries
The temporary 10% tariff between the U.S. and China, originally set to expire on August 12, has now been extended until November 10.
Among Japan and Southeast Asian countries, China currently has the lowest tariff rate.
Tariff Rates as of August 2025:
- China: 10%
- Japan: 15%
- Southeast Asia (Thailand, Indonesia, etc.): 19%
- Vietnam: 20%
2) U.S.-Bound Export Trends & Christmas Season
According to the Port of Los Angeles, July saw a record-breaking monthly import volume of 1.02 million TEUs.
September typically marks the peak of exports for the Christmas shopping season.
Will exports from China surge due to the tariff situation?
Will countries like Vietnam and Japan lose out on space, leading to a spike in spot freight rates?
Probably not. Many shippers are currently dealing with excess inventory due to a rush of exports in late May and June, driven by fears of tariff hikes.
In other words, demand for the Christmas season was front-loaded.
As a result, many market participants believe that cargo volumes from China to the U.S. in August and September may not grow as much as expected.
3) Red Sea & Suez Canal Situation
Just as some carriers like CMA had resumed transit, renewed Houthi attacks have made it difficult to continue operations.
It now appears unlikely that transit will resume within 2025.
This means longer lead times and ongoing container imbalances are expected to persist.
<Outlook>
Freight rates will continue to fluctuate due to various factors, but we expect them to remain stable or slightly increase from September onward.
(August rates are the lowest of the year—possibly the bottom.)
In any case, a sharp spike like the one in June is unlikely, so the impact on shipments from Vietnam and Japan to the U.S. should be minimal.
We hope you enjoyed this new format!
We’d love to hear your thoughts—whether face to face or by email.
Please feel free to share your feedback!
Warm Regards,
Dragon Logistics
For inquiry（Vietnamese, Japanese, English）：marketing@draco.com.vn
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This newsletter is based on information provided by our company in accordance with the law and actual practice,
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